Runto expects output cuts, not demand, to lift TV panel prices
Rising panel costs will limit TV brands' price cuts for the rest of the promotion season, the research firm expects.
Chinese research firm Runto (洛图科技) expects LCD TV panel prices to rise next month for 55-inch and larger sizes, and it says panel makers' costs and output cuts, not demand, are behind the rise. It forecasts increases of US$2 for 55-inch panels, US$3 for 65- and 75-inch ones and US$5 for 85-inch ones, with 32- and 43-inch panels flat.
The rises are small. Each is less than 2% of Runto's October price (US$120 for a 55-inch panel), by our calculation. Runto expects November prices to stay flat, it said in a Nov. 6 post that puts figures on a rise it had signaled earlier. TrendForce, a Taipei research firm, also expects November to be flat, in its price quote.
Runto estimates the average total cost of an LCD TV panel is up 4% to 8% in the fourth quarter from the third, while prices for mainstream sizes have moved sideways or fallen since the second quarter. Mainland makers BOE (京东方), TCL CSOT (TCL华星) and HKC (惠科), which hold about 70% of global TV panel supply by Runto's count, cut output in October. Runto puts mainland makers' planned utilization (the share of capacity in use) at 80% to 85% in November and expects about 80% in December. Major panel makers all ran above 90% in August, Runto said then.
Runto says TV brands may start to accept the rise in December. It expects rising panel costs to limit brands' price cuts for the rest of the promotion season, 21st Century Business Herald (21世纪经济报道) reported. Runto forecasts China's 2026 TV shipments at 30.36 million TVs, down 7.7% on the year and the lowest since at least 2010.
In addition, according to an earlier Runto report, costlier memory chips have raised the cost of building a TV.
Runto says the rise could fail if retail sales during China's Double 11 shopping festival on Nov. 11 and Black Friday abroad are very poor, and that the market could struggle if the three big makers don't hold output down together. It expects Double 11 TV retail volume to fall about 5% on the year, with sales value about flat, the paper reported.
Sources
