Runto: China's TV market is shrinking
Amidst declining sales at home, TV brands like TCL are looking overseas for growth.
Brands will ship fewer than 30 million TV sets into China's home market in 2027, research firm Runto (洛图科技) forecasts: 29.26 million, down 3.6% from this year.
Meanwhile, it expects 2026 shipments to fall 7.7% to 30.36 million, the smallest market since at least 2010, according to its third-quarter report of Oct. 29. The figures count brands' shipments of complete sets into the market, not retail sales.
Third-quarter shipments fell 4.3% from a year earlier to 6.96 million sets, the sixth straight quarterly decline, after two quarters of growth that followed the start of China's national trade-in subsidy in late 2024. Runto says buying is now mainly replacement, with the subsidy as a floor. Runto says the declines are narrowing in the second half, after falls of 8.8% and 11.6% from a year earlier in the first two quarters, though the market is still shrinking. In July, Runto had forecast 30.12 million for 2026.
The three traditional leaders are gaining slightly bigger slices of the domestic pie. In the third quarter, Hisense, Skyworth (创维) and TCL, with their sub-brands, shipped about 4.29 million sets, up 0.4% from a year earlier, lifting their combined share 2.8 points to 61.6%. Xiaomi, including Redmi, shipped close to 1.3 million, about 19% of the market. Runto gave no year-earlier figure for it. Changhong (长虹), Haier and Konka (康佳) shipped about 910,000 combined, down 11.1% from a year earlier, though Changhong alone grew 10.0%, with its large sets selling well in stores, Runto said. Huawei's shipments fell 8.1% from a year earlier to about 150,000.
Brands are putting less behind low-end small sets and more behind 75-inch-plus and Mini LED models, whose share keeps rising, Runto said. It forecasts that prices of large TV panels may rise at year-end, further limiting brands' room to cut prices.
Brands are looking abroad and upmarket for growth. TCL Electronics expects adjusted net profit of about HK$2.11 billion to HK$2.25 billion for the first nine months, up about 45% to 55%, on revenue up about 10% to 18%, and credits its “globalization” and mid-to-high-end strategy, it said in a preliminary Hong Kong exchange filing. Mainland China exported 107.14 million TV sets in 2025, down 3.1%, Runto’s export tracker shows — more than three times the roughly 32.9 million sets brands shipped into the home market that year, based on Runto’s figures. TCL, Hisense, Changhong and others have been building plants in Vietnam and Mexico, moves Runto said in an April report were aimed at reducing exposure to U.S. tariffs on Chinese-made goods. The quarterly figures follow Runto’s earlier reports of monthly declines and a September slump for contract TV makers.
Sources: 洛图科技 RUNTO (OFweek 维科号), 洛图科技 RUNTO [1], [2], TCL電子控股 TCL Electronics (HKEX filing)
Editor: Ian Lamont
